Event report
Breakfast Meeting : East Africa Economic Outlook 2026 with the Regional Economic Department of the French Embassy in Kenya
A focused and detailed briefing on the trends shaping East Africa’s economic outlook in 2026.
On Thursday, 2 July 2026, the French Chamber of Commerce in Kenya, in partnership with the Regional Economic Department of the French Embassy in Kenya | French Treasury, hosted a breakfast meeting on East Africa’s Economic Outlook for 2026.
Led by Paul Mainguet, Juliette Mouden, Nimrod Ambundo and Alix Garnier, the session explored the main economic, fiscal and geopolitical trends expected to influence business and investment decisions across the region.
East Africa continues to benefit from strong demographics, rapid urbanisation and growing infrastructure needs. Services remain the dominant sector, while agriculture continues to play a major role in several economies. However, limited industrialisation and reliance on commodity exports leave the region exposed to global price movements.
Kenya recorded approximately 4.9% growth and 4.1% inflation in 2025, with growth forecast at 4.5% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027. The economy remains diversified and resilient, although weaker agricultural performance, limited access to credit and uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections remain important risks.
Public finances were identified as one of the region’s main vulnerabilities. Kenya’s public debt stands at approximately 73% of GDP, while high debt-servicing costs continue to limit the resources available for infrastructure, public services and private-sector development.
The speakers also highlighted East Africa’s exposure to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Around 70% of Kenya’s oil imports originate from GCC countries, with several regional supply routes depending on the Strait of Hormuz.
Higher fuel prices have contributed to inflation and increased business costs. In response, Kenya introduced measures including the Fuel Stabilisation Fund and a reduction in fuel VAT from 16% to 8%.
Declining official development assistance is creating further pressure, with US government disbursements to the region falling by 25.1% in 2025.
Despite these challenges, East Africa is expected to remain one of Africa’s fastest-growing regions. Uganda is projected to benefit from the start of oil production in 2027, while Ethiopia and Rwanda should continue to record strong growth supported by infrastructure investment.
The Q&A also addressed pending government bills, access to private-sector credit, borrowing strategies, commodity prices and inflation. The speakers noted that lower oil prices could help ease inflation in Kenya over the coming months, provided geopolitical conditions remain stable.
The key takeaway: East Africa remains resilient and full of opportunity, but businesses must closely monitor debt sustainability, energy exposure, access to financing, currency movements and political developments.
We warmly thank the Regional Economic Department of the French Embassy in Kenya | French Treasury, the speakers and all participants for this insightful discussion.
